Climate Change in Cyprus and Societal Impact from Past to Present
This the final event of 4 - year project with Rouen University in Normandy, the Geological Survey Department and it is part of an ongoing relationship with a group of speleologists / geologists and health geographers. A short summary of the project is given below.
Comparing long-term climate variability with documentary data for the last millennium is challenging in regions where well-resolved natural records are lacking. In Cyprus, historical data of famine outbreaks, plagues and locust waves were retrieved from a variety of historical documents. These events are considered as societal indicators as they reflect the vulnerability of the Cypriot society towards environmental and climatic change from the late Lusignan’s to the Early British colonial period. The aim of this study within the HIGH-PASM project is to reveal the impact of climate change on Cypriot landscape and society and explore the relationship between local climate variability and locust waves, plagues and famine outbreaks.
An 8 cm-high actively growing stalagmite was collected from the Hot cave in Cyprus and analyzed. The stalagmite covers the period from 2021 back to 1338 CE. The geochemical analyses permitted to reconstruct the climate signal of the past 700 years and compare it to historical records. The process was repeated in Varathron Cave in the Akamas Peninsula with similar results
The oxygen and carbon signals from the stalagmite indicate long dry periods prior to the 16th century, long wet periods from the 16th to the end-18th and a return to dry years at the early 19th century followed by an alternation between short dry and wet until 2000 CE. An exceptionally dry period persists After the 21st century.
We suggest that the carbon signal reflect vegetation conditions and interpret as an indicator for local dry conditions above the cave, while the oxygen variability reflects effective infiltration.
The comparison between the occurrence of three types of historical events shows that 36% of locust waves and famines occurred within the same year and a similar synchronicity was found between famines and plague outbreaks.
Plagues and locust waves, however, did not occur significantly synchronously. Statistical analyses between the carbon volatility index and the number of locust waves, plagues, and famines show whether certain combinations of dry/wet and volatile/non-volatile conditions promote any of the three different disasters.
The results show that all three types of events occurred during wet and non-volatile (low signal oscillation) periods. This is consistent with the ecological niches of Dociostaurus maroccanus (locust specie) and Yersinina pestis (zoonotic bacterium that causes plague) which require a slightly wet climate to proliferate. However, this applies less to famines, as many famines also occurred during dry periods (e.g., in the 19th century).
Historical Sources
Saint Neophytos the Recluse (1196, 2018) “On the Calamities Against the Country of Cyprus” Thessalonica
Saint Neophytos the Recluse (2018) “Agios Neophytos Surviving Works” Thessalonica
Machairas Leontios “Explanation of the Sweet Country Cyprus Chronicle (Chronikon) ” 309 – 1458 AD 5
Boustronios Georgios “Narrative of the Chronicle of Cyprus” 1459 – 1489 AD
Archimandrite Kyprianos (1788) “Chronological History of the Island of Cyprus” Venice, republished by Philokypros
Theocharides I.P. (2022) . “ Ottoman Sources of the History of Cyprus: From the Records of the National Library of Sophia” Elias Epifaniou Publishers (ISBN : 978-9925-581-41-2)
Stavrides, T (2007). Jerusalem Patriarchate and Cyprus Letters 1731 -1884. Center of Studies Holy Kykkos Monastery.
Pavlides A. (1992) “History of the Island Cyprus” Philokypros, 4 Volumes,
Sophocleous S. (2002) “Palaichoria Centuries of Heritage” Published Association for the Protection of the Monuments of Palaichori
Ioannou Psillita P. (Forthcoming) . Palaichori : Speaking Monuments
Ioannou Psillita P (2013) . Agios Epifanios : Speaking Monuments
Papapolyviou P (2020). From the History of Pandemics in Cyprus.
https://papapolyviou.com/2020/02/29/apo-tin-istoria-ton-epidimion-stin-kipro/
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Climate change in Cyprus and societal impact from past to present
A retrospective view through
the results of the HIGH-PASM project
Thursday 8th and Friday 9th May 2025
UNESCO Amphitheater EUROPA Building
University of Nicosia &
University of Rouen, Normandy
High-resolution Paleoclimate Archives &
Societal vulnerability for the last Millennium in Cyprus
Website: https://highpasm.hypotheses.org X: @HighPasm
Understanding how past & present societies responded to extreme climatic changes is crucial for gaining insight into current & future environmental challenges, especially environmental stress & sanitary conditions in the context of the present climate change impacting the Near-East. Presently, the climate crisis, affects the Levantine region, nowadays widely recognized as one of the principal climate “hot spots” of the world. More specifically in Cyprus, temperature & precipitation trends during the 20th century are severely affecting various aspects of environmental & societal adaptation.
A retrospective view on climate change & social vulnerability for the last millennium is presented by the HIGH-PASM project. Funded by the French national Agency, the project focused on reconstructing fluctuations of precipitation in Cyprus & how this variability impacted the landscape & sanitary conditions of Cypriot society since the medieval times. On one hand, natural archives such as speleothems provide high-resolution and quantitative hydrological & temperature data to complement existing data, such as compiled weather data for the last century. On the other hand, historical & public health archives of locusts, famines & diseases have been integrated to offer new indicators for the analysis of social responses.
This conference aims to publish the results of the HIGH-PASM project, discuss the adaptation of Cypriot society to climate change & share knowledge on the impact of climate change on biodiversity, pollution, environmental hazards, disease outbreaks & water resources.
This event will be held under the auspices of the Rector of the University of Nicosia Prof. Philippos POUYIOUTAS and the Ambassador of France to Cyprus, MM. Clélia CHEVRIER KOLAČKO.
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Thursday 8th of May 2025
11:00 – 12:00 Press Conference
15:00 – 16:00 Poster session
17:00 – 17:30 Signing of the Memorandum of Understanding
Meeting of the Rector of the University of Nicosia Prof. Philippos POUYIOUTAS and the French ambassador to Cyprus MM. Clélia CHEVRIER KOLAČKO.
17:30 – 19:00 Panel talk “Climate Change and Adaptation of the Cypriot Society”
Participants: Dr. George Zittis (Cyprus Institute), Dr. Nicolas Jarraud (Senior Specialist, Global Water Partnership), Dr. Salih Gucel (Environmental Scientist), Mr. Charalambos Theopemptou (Member of the Parliament in Cyprus)
Moderator: Dr. Carole Nehmé (UMR IDEES CNRS, University of Rouen-Normandy)
Friday 9th of May 2025
10:00 – 12:30 Scientific Conference
Opening of the conference Dr George Gregoriou, Academic Vice President for Regulatory Affairs, Rectorate, Associate Professor, Department of Engineering
10:00 - 10:20 The Evolution of Cyprus from the 90 million years until recent times
Dr. Vasilis Symeou (Geological Survey of Cyprus)
10:20 - 10:40 The climate cycles in Cyprus and its imprints in speleothems
Dr. Carole Nehmé (UMR IDEES CNRS, University of Rouen Normandy)
10:40 - 11:00 Climate change and diseases in Cyprus: a long-term perspective
Pr. Emmanuel Eliot / Victor Beauvalet (UMR IDEES CNRS, University of Rouen Normandy)
11:00 - 11:20 Temperature trend from different sources in Cyprus and comparison with Lebanon
Pr. Jocelyne Gerard (Saint-Joseph University, Lebanon)
11:30 - 11:50 Climate change and biodiversity in Cyprus: an overview
Pr. Jeffrey Harvey (Netherlands Institute of Ecology & Vrije Utrecht University)
11:50 - 12:10 Assessing Temperature Impacts on Public Health: Insights from Cyprus
Dr. Souzana Achilleos (Environmental Health, Department of Primary Care & Population Health, Medical School, University of Nicosia)
12:10 - 12:30 Current Status and Challenges of the Water Distribution System in Cyprus
Pr. Edna Yamasaki / Helena S.Y. Patrickiou (Environmental Health Research Centre, University of
Nicosia)
12:30 – 13:00 Student prize for the best poster (1st, 2nd and 3rd place)